Two plus two do not always add up to four in politics. This is particularly true with Nepali politics. It is difficult to predict the course of Nepal’s politics from what the politicians, parties and their leaders say. The widely believed perception in Nepal is that most politicians have trouble speaking the truth and are, therefore, not dependable.

This is exactly what has happened with the political developments that have unfolded in the run-up to the election for the president and vice president. The political parties forged three different alliances in just three days. Firstly, the CPN-Maoist and the CPN-UML had a pact for the president and the new government to be led by the Maoists. As reported by the media, these two parties agreed to share power, according to which the post of president would go to the CPN-UML while the Maoists would lead the government in which the CPN-UML would join as a junior partner. The leaders of both the parties, including Prachanda, made their opinion public in support of this two-party alliance, which broke apart before it could be put to the test.

In the eleventh hour, when barely four hours remained for filing nominations for the posts of president and vice president, the CPN-Maoist changed its attitude. The CPN-Maoist suddenly announced that it would back Ram Raja Prasad Singh for the post of president instead of the CPN-UML candidate. The reason for the change in their earlier stance was that the CPN-UML had insisted on backing its former general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal who was defeated in the Constituent Assembly election from two constituencies. Nepal had lost the Constituent Assembly election from Kathmandu and Rautahat constituencies and stepped down from the post of the party’s general secretary on moral grounds. But there is little difference between Madhav Kumar Nepal and Ram Raja Prasad Singh as the former had lost the election while the latter did not even contest the polls, probably fearing a humiliating defeat.

This was, thus, just an excuse. But the strategy of the Maoists was to weaken and condemn the parties by pitting one force against the other. Right from the time it joined the peace process, the Maoists have been applying this tactics, and they have been successful. But their strategy failed to work this time around.

When they joined the peace process, their first target was the monarchy, which was their primary enemy, and the other forces like the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML were secondary rivals. So they used the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to oust the king, in which they were perfectly successful. After the abolition of the monarchy and declaration of the country as a republic, their strategy and tactics changed. With the monarchy gone, the Nepali Congress became their primary enemy and the UML the secondary one. So they used the CPN-UML to marginalise the Nepali Congress. And they succeeded to some extent by pretending to forge an alliance with the CPN-UML.

The strategy of the Maoists was keep the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML from coming together to share power in the new political scenario. Apparently, the partnership between the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML became almost impossible as the CPN-UML leaders, echoing the Maoist views, started attacking the Nepali Congress for the political deadlock in the country.

But the Maoists were in no mood to make the CPN-UML politically powerful and influential. So the Maoists forged an alliance with the Madhesi parties. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, a terai-based party that is the fourth largest force in the Constituent Assembly, announced that it would support the Maoist-backed candidate, which was followed by other Madhes-based parties. Given the number game, this alliance had a majority in the Constituent Assembly, and their candidate would have won comfortably, had the alliance remained intact until election day. Unfortunately, it did not happen as planned, and a new alliance emerged overnight. This time, it was not the Maoists but the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum that broke the promise and joined hands with the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

The betrayal by the Maoist party was a big shock to the CPN-UML, in general, and its newly elected general secretary Jhalanath Khanal, in particular. The UML leadership was initially divided on joining hands with the Maoists. But it was general secretary Khanal’s personal insistence that led to forging an alliance with the Maoists. Khanal was championing for a broader left unity in the future, which had not been well appreciated by some of his party colleagues. When the alliance with the Maoists broke, Khanal’s leadership and ability were questioned in the party.

The CPN-UML was the mastermind behind the new alliance. Feeling betrayed, it changed the political equation overnight. Thus, the CPN-UML quit the race for the posts of both the president and vice president and decided to support the other parties. It was agreed between the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum that the Congress would get the presidential post, Forum the vice president and the UML chairperson of the Constituent Assembly. Some other fringe parties also backed this three-party alliance, as a result of which Dr. Ram Baran Yadav of the Nepali Congress and Pramananda Jha of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum were elected president and vice president of the country.

So three alliances came to the fore in just three days. The previous two alliances failed while the third one worked. These short-lived alliances were not based on ideological or sound political grounds but guided by the lust for power. Thus, none of them lasted long. Even the latest three-party alliance is not expected to last long as there is no ideological and political basis. Don’t be surprised if a new alliance arises during the election of the chairperson of the Constituent Assembly scheduled for July 24 (Thursday).

The political trend that has set in is definitely not a good sign for the country. An alliance that targets any political force is against the mandate of the people. According to the mandate of the people expressed through the Constituent Assembly, all the political forces need to work together, and any national issue should be decided on the basis of consensus and compromise. In the present political equation, no political force should be minimised. The fundamental job of the political parties, government and the Constituent Assembly is to write a new constitution, for which a two-third majority of the Constituent Assembly is required. The two-third majority is not possible unless the three main political forces, especially the CPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, work together.

Since the CPN-Maoist is the largest political party in the country, the responsibility of taking all the political forces, in general, and the major parties, in particular, into confidence and also taking the lead role in the political and constitution writing process lies with it. But this has not happened, which is a big weakness of the Maoists. The parties now must rise above their partisan interests and give more priority to broader national interest.

A new government must be formed to lead the constitution writing process. The mistake that was made in forging alliances aimed at minimising the other political forces should not be repeated while forming the new government. The politics of consensus is the need of the hour, to which the political parties and leaders must commit themselves.